Among the many “enhancements” announced this month by Southwest was a change to variable point value on top of their already dynamic pricing. This means that despite award redemptions already costing more for more expensive flights, now the value of each point will vary. As I wrote recently, this was the change that concerned me most. I also made my prediction last week that this change would take place with the other big ones on May 28th. I was wrong on the timing but unfortunately correct in my concern that this is essentially a stealth devaluation.
Southwest has opened their schedule to January 5th, 2026 and, much like the no-notice devaluation of points earning on Wanna Get Away and Wanna Get Away Plus fares a few weeks ago, the enhanced devalued point redemptions also went live with no notice. Taken together, based on my check of ~ 30 different routes today, I consider it a 71.6% devaluation from the earning and redemption value offered by Wanna Get Away fares just a few weeks ago.
What is the new value?
Across my searches, I found exactly 1 flight with a better value, around 1.6 cents per point (cpp) for a very cheap nonstop and just a few that were close to previous values (at least 1.3 cpp). Almost all were in the 1.1 to 1.2cpp range and I even found a few that were just below 1.1cpp. These were not ultra peak routes either. Omaha to Little Rock at 6:00am on a random Wednesday in early November: 1.2cpp for what has to be about as “off peak” as it gets.
Taking my new calculated average value of 1.15cpp vs 1.35cpp previously, combined with only earning 2 points per dollar spent vs 6 points for Wanna Get Away fares, we can calculate the decrease in overall value:
Old: 6 points per dollar times 1.35cpp equals an effective rebate of 8.1%
New: 2 points per dollar times 1.15cpp equals an effective rebate of only 2.3%
Moving from and 8.1% to a 2.3% rebate is a 71.6% reduction in the value of buying a Wanna Get Away fare and then redeeming those points.
I will do a broader search in a few weeks as well as track select flights to see if the point value for redemption changes based on how a flight is selling. If the value changes over time even if the cash price is static that just adds more mental gymnastics to decide if using points or cash is the better option. I suppose the Southwest leadership either doesn’t care or thinks customers are too stupid to consider these factors when making their decisions. This also gives them an avenue to slowly devalue more in the future and hope customers don’t notice.
Where do we go from here?
Overall, this is a big disappointment that, as I feared, would fly under the radar with the bag fees change getting the most headlines. That leaves Southwest with just a single advantage over any other carrier: the Companion Pass. My first prediction: it is here to stay, but the threshold to earn it may get devalued in 2026. Here’s why:
There are two groups that Southwest doesn’t want to piss off with these changes: Top tier elites/business travel customers and Chase bank. If you look at the changes through this lens it makes sense. If you are an A-List Preferred member who buys Business Select fares, you are even better off than you were last month. While the point redemption value has devalued, points earning actually increased to 14X points per dollar and you still get free checked bags and now free assigned seats. At 1.15cpp that is a 16.1% rebate, which gets even better with the A-List and A-List Preferred point bonuses. For a non-A-List member, this means that buying a Business Select fare is now 7X more rewarding than a Wanna Get Away (16.1% vs 2.3% point value rebate).
It is well known that airlines make most (or sometimes all) of their profit selling points to banks. Southwest has 5 different credit card products available through Chase and Ultimate Rewards points can also be transferred to Southwest from cards like the Sapphire Preferred. Selling these points to Chase is very attractive for Southwest, especially when they can snap their fingers and devalue them overnight. How to keep Chase happy? Perhaps they renegotiate the deal to reduce what Chase pays for these points, but my second prediction is that we will see special increased sign-up bonus offers in the second half of this year to encourage more customers to get the Southwest credit cards. Southwest may even kick in some of the points to help fund the offers and keep customers in the program.
You might say this is not exactly a bold prediction because the Southwest cards often have more attractive sign-up bonuses late in the year, which when timed well can help you get a nearly 2-year Companion Pass. We also have deals like the current offer (expiring 3/31) to get some points and a Companion Pass good through next February. That is a fair point, but I think we will see something different and aggressive because Southwest can’t risk killing this golden goose (selling points to Chase), and many current card customers are going to cancel based on the changes.
TL;DR: By significantly reducing the earning on Wanna Get Away fares and now introducing variable redemption rates, both with no notice, Southwest has reduced the value of buying these fares by over 70%. Based on my quick survey of several routes, the vast majority offered points values of 1.1-1.2cpp, a reduction from the typical ~1.35cpp we received previously.
Remember when they launched the revenue based program years ago it was a 60x the fare multiplier. We’ve gone from 60x to closer to 95x. Crazy. And fares have gone up about 2x. None of it drives my loyalty.
The headline is misleading clickbait and suggests a redemption deval of 71%. In fact the redemption deval is only 10% from 1.3% to 1.1-1.2%.
Yes the paid fares earn fewer points now but that was already announced weeks ago and is not a devaluation in the value of the points it’s just a negative change in the earning structure. Most people earn most of their WN points through credit card spend.
I personally won’t be buying cash fares on WN anymore and I expect their biz will be tanking. Hopefully Elliott will take a huge bath on its investment after ruining this airline.
I tried to be very specific with the title that the devaluation is specific to Wanna Get Away fares. When taken together (earning and redemption), that’s how the math works. I still have multiple flights booked (with cash) out into the future where my earning was promised to be 6 points per dollar when I booked it which I think is at best very poor form by Southwest and at worst illegal to change the terms after the fact.
I agree with you, for points earned on credit card spend it is not nearly as bad on the pure devaluation side, although I would argue 1) it is almost a 15% devaluation if the new average value is 1.15cpp vs 1.35cpp and 2) it is even LESS of a reason to spend on the credit cards vs earning transferrable points or 2% cash back. However, I know many people that still use the Southwest card for everyday spend. I have an article coming out soon that takes a deep dive on the value of that spend vs alternatives.
I also agree with you in hoping that Elliott takes a huge bath on this investment and then gets out. Clearly the executive team are merely puppets to the new board members right now…